There are many teams who have a shot at winning the 2026 World Cup, with high expectations placed on nations like Argentina, France and Spain, who have all won recent World Cups or major tournaments in recent years. In our pick ’em for the World Cup, users select who they think will win each of the 12 groups ahead of the tournament’s first game on Thursday. Then, after the group stage concludes and 32 of the tournament’s 48 teams move on to the knockout rounds, users can then pick the results of each of the 31 elimination games.
With nations playing so infrequently, head-to-head results can have a much larger impact than it does for club teams. It can be important to look at historical matchups like England vs Germany for example, and where the results over the years may indicate which team might win the upcoming game. Perhaps none has had more recent success on the international stage as France’s Didier Deschamps. He’s guided Les Bleus to two consecutive finals in FIFA’s quadrennial tournament, winning it all in 2018 and coming up heartbreakingly short four years ago in a penalty-shootout loss to Argentina.
When the tournament begins, it will have been 20 years since the Azzurri played a knockout match at the World Cup – with their most recent such game being the 2006 final. Haaland struck 16 of those goals, matching Robert Lewandowski’s 2018 record for the most prolific UEFA World Cup qualification campaign. Lewandowski scored his tally in 10 games, two more than Haaland. Canada are deemed the least likely of the host nations to go all the way, winning the tournament in just 0.4% of our simulations, though they are only a year removed from a historic tournament run. Their route to this World Cup was not completely smooth, either, as they were left needing victory over Slovakia in their final Group A game to avoid the play-offs. But they won that match by a statement 6-0 scoreline, with Nick Woltemade, Serge Gnabry and Leroy Sané among the goals.
Morocco (1.1%) and Ecuador (1.0%) are the other teams with a greater than 1% chance of glory, with Japan (0.9%) and USA just behind. Norway will be the team nobody wishes to draw from Pot 3, having steamrolled their way through the UEFA qualifiers with a perfect eight wins and 37 goals – the most of any team. Ancelotti was only in charge for the final five games of their campaign, but less than eight months into his reign, he has already overseen surprise defeats to Bolivia and Japan, as well as poor draws with Ecuador and Tunisia.
Ahead of this week’s draw, we have taken a deep dive into the Opta supercomputer’s first set of World Cup predictions to assess who is most likely to lift the trophy. Sixteen venues across the United States, Canada and Mexico will play host to the biggest-ever edition of the tournament, with the number of teams increasing from 32 and 48 and the tally of games upped from 64 to 104. The first 48–team field in World Cup history has been filed down to 32 for the knockout stages. The defending champions won Group J with a perfect record and drew the kinder half of the bracket.
The striker is already the record goalscorer for England and has remained a pivotal figure for Tuchel, under whom the early returns have been strong. France have reached the final in four of the last seven editions – twice as often as any other nation during that period – and it would be a surprise if they were not there or thereabouts once again. Deschamps also lifted the trophy as a player when he was captain in 1998, and this World Cup will be the first for Mbappé as France skipper. Within that sextet, three teams are seen as the biggest challengers to Spain and three others, while very much in the mix, might need a little more good fortune to go their way if they are to emerge triumphant. As the tournament draws ever closer, getting stuck into the Opta supercomputer’s projections is the perfect way to whet your appetite while brushing up on some stimulating statistics.
All completed World Cup 2026 predictions remain fully visible — review our track record anytime. Julian Nagelsmann’s side were beaten in the quarter-finals on home soil at Euro 2024, marking the first time Germany have appeared at four major tournaments (World Cup/Euros) in a row without reaching a semi-final at any of them. La Roja swept all before them, winning six of their seven matches inside 90 minutes and only requiring extra-time to eliminate hosts Germany in the quarter-final. They scored 15 goals in the tournament – four more than anyone else.
The USMNT leads the way once again at 2.45%, but there are 10 teams seen as more likely winners. While Messi inspired his capable but unspectacular team-mates to glory in 2022, Ronaldo arrives in North America with real quality all around him. There’s the PSG clan of Joao Neves, Nuno Mendes, Goncalo Ramos and Ballon d’Or third-place Vitinha who are coming into this off the back of a second straight Champions League win. Brilliant Bernardo Silva and the livewire Rafael Leao are in Roberto Martinez’s squad too.
A point would be enough for Colombia to secure the top spot in Group K. Panama are given just an 8.9 percent chance of recording their first-ever World Cup victory, while the probability of them earning a maiden World Cup point stands at 12.6 percent. Six World Cup games, knockout places on the line, Cape Verde make history and Iran wait for a place in the Round of 32. With FIFA World Cup betting, it is key not to make silly mistakes which can immediately harm your chances of placing winning bets. England are another nation with a strong squad, and they will be seeking to avenge their heartache in recent major competitions where they have fallen at the final hurdle or close to it. A total of 18 spots are earnt for these three different qualification processes in Asia (AFC), Africa (CAF) and Oceania (OFC).
Both sides arrived at this summer’s tournament expecting to reach the later stages and the supercomputer does not predict any early obstacles. They also won last summer’s Nations League, getting the better of both Germany and Spain in the semi-finals and finals, with largely the same group of players. France will naturally sit near the top of most betting markets but they are easier to oppose than the odds suggest.
No nation has retained the men’s World Cup since Brazil in 1962, and the expanded 48-team format adds an extra knockout round and more upset paths than any previous edition. Whether you want to forecast the world cup 2026 favorites whole tournament, compete with friends, or just watch the games — we’ve got you covered. Here’s exactly how we compute championship odds, group probabilities, and knockout forecasts.
The 2026 knockout format starts with Round of 32 — a new round created by the 48-team expansion. 8 third-placed teams join the 24 automatic qualifiers (1st + 2nd from each of 12 groups), making the R32 path unprecedented. FIFA Annex C determines R32 pairings based on which groups the third-placed teams come from. A place in the World Cup last 16 will be at stake when Brazil and Japan lock horns at NRG Stadium in what promises to be one of the most exciting last-32 ties. As both sides are likely to adopt a cautious approach, we predict a 1-1 draw. Sparkles will be flying when USA and Bosnia and Herzegovina square off in the World Cup last 32 at Levi’s Stadium.
In total, there are 16 stadiums spanning across the U.S., Canada and Mexico that will be used during the month-long tournament. With 48 teams in the 2026 World Cup, there’s more disparity across the four-team groups than we’re typically used to. Now that there are 12 groups instead of eight, it’s hard to find a Group of Death with four exceptionally strong teams. There are 12 different groups of four teams in the 2026 World Cup. Here’s the breakdown on all of them, including what you need to know about each team. Gabriel Avalos has only scored twice in 25 appearances for his country, but there is again set to be a spot in the final third of the field for the 34-year-old.
What a story it would be if, at 41-years-old, Cristiano Ronaldo matches his arch rival Lionel Messi by helping Portugal to a first-ever World Cup this summer. The Argentina ace’s supporters have been able to play a trump card whenever the debate about the two modern-day icons has been had since Messi’s heroics in Qatar. Colombia were victorious in 23.9 percent of simulations, while the draw was given a 25.2 percent probability.
He was in the squad that swept all before them to win Euro 2024 in such impressive style just two summers ago. That is helpful to coach Luis de la Fuente given there are doubts over the fitness of Barcelona sensation Lamine Yamal for their initial games as he recovers from a hamstring injury. It is Argentina who go into the World Cup as defending champions after Lionel Messi helped to guide La Albiceleste to a famous triumph in Qatar towards the end of 2022.
When the smart-money crowd converges on a Top 4, history suggests a team NOT in that group wins the tournament about 25% of the time. Watch Portugal, Germany, and Netherlands as potential disruptors. Top 5 (Argentina, Spain, France, England, Brazil) most likely to reach this stage. Historical data suggests 5 of 8 QF teams will be from Europe + South America. Most matches should follow ranking expectations, but expect 2–4 upsets given third-placed teams are typically mid-tier (ranked 40–80 globally). Below you’ll find our expert tips for the World Cup across the most popular football betting markets, including Match Result, Both Teams to Score (BTTS), Over/Under 2.5 Goals, Total Goals, and Correct Score.
Don’t be surprised if at least one traditional power exits before the quarter-finals. Like Messi, Ronaldo will appear at a record-breaking sixth edition of the World Cup, but of his eight goals in 22 games at the tournament, three have been penalties and none have come in the knockout stages. Building momentum heading into a tournament is huge, and the vast majority of nations will play friendly matches with their strongest teams in close proximity to the tournament to build a rapport between the players. These World Cup 2026 predictions combine the final group standings and results with our own group-by-group analysis, updated after every matchday. The picks weigh how each team actually performed, the strength of their group, and the bracket path ahead of them. This page is refreshed after each knockout round, so the picks always reflect the latest results.
For those who prefer Spanish-language broadcasts, 92 games will be on Telemundo, with the other 12 matches (all simultaneous group finales) on Universo. Estadio Azteca is the most well-known in Mexico, but sites in Monterrey and Guadalajara will also be used. Then, in the United States, Atlanta, Boston, Dallas, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Miami, Houston, New York/New Jersey, Philadelphia, San Francisco and Seattle will be host cities. NFL stadiums have been retrofitted and rebranded to host the games due to FIFA rules, so you won’t see usual signage for places like AT&T Stadium; it will be labeled Dallas Stadium instead. Before the biggest FIFA tournament ever kicks off, some predictions are in order. The field has been supersized from 32 to 48 teams and the competition will begin in earnest on June 11 with Mexico hosting South Africa at Mexico City’s famed Estadio Azteca.
He finally has that winning feeling at Bayern and maybe, just maybe, he’s ready to fire England to glory too. Anchored by a veteran Casemiro, who can cap off a trophy-laden career with the holy grail of international football. At the back, a Champions League final defensive duo of Gabriel and Marquinhos will be difficult to top throughout the tournament. The World Cup kicks off on June 11 – but who will lift the trophy after the final on July 19?
Each 4-team group sends 2 teams automatically plus 8 of the 12 third-placed teams to R32. Brazil have been improving with every match, defeating Scotland and Haiti before sharing the spoils with Morocco. The Yanks sacrificed their 100% group-stage record with a 3-2 defeat to Turkey, but Mauricio Pochettino’s decision to rotate the entire s…
Furthermore, it can simply lead to a drop in motivation levels, especially if they face a team needing to win to earn a place in the World Cup Finals. However, that doesn’t mean there aren’t any intriguing games in the group stage. Here are 10 pivotal matchups you’ll see in group play before 32 teams move on to the knockout rounds. Last time out in 2022, Holland reached the quarter-finals, and a win over Morocco would see them secure a spot in the round of 16 against South Africa and Canada, opening up a route into the final eight of the tournament. Netherlands have reached the most World Cup finals without ever lifting the trophy (three), while Norway are flying having steamrolled their way through the UEFA qualifiers with 37 goals – the most of any team.
Kickoff back in the UK feels like textbook ingredients for another English tale of World Cup woe. Egypt, Mohamed Salah and all, should have more than enough to do the job here. But time and again, they flatter to deceive on this stage, and the sight of them hanging on against Iran should give Australia plenty of encouragement. A battle of the veterans as Cristiano Ronaldo and Luka Modric, both into their fifth decade, face off for the last time on the big stage. Mexico at the Azteca, backed by a raucous home crowd, has become appointment viewing at this World Cup.
Mauricio Pochettino’s USMNT is also given great odds of making it through to the next round, sitting at 78.46%. Canada and Mexico, the other two co-hosts, are both expected to advance comfortably as well. As the round of 32 prepares to get underway on Sunday, the cogs of the Opta supercomputer have been whirring to rate every team’s chances of glory.
Looking ahead all the way to the final, two teams stand out from the crowd. No team has greater odds of reaching the round of 16 than Argentina. Standing in its way is underdog Cabo Verde, whose spirited journey is expected to come to an emphatic end in the coming days.
The 2026 World Cup is co-hosted by the United States (11 venues), Mexico (3 venues), and Canada (2 venues) across 16 stadiums. The final will be played at MetLife Stadium in New York/New Jersey. Live scores for every match of the 2026 World Cup, in your timezone.
Every result below is cross-checked against the final standings, so the picks reflect what actually happened on the pitch, not just pre-tournament models. Earn points, climb the leaderboard, and create private leagues with friends. Our predictor lets you override any forecast and compete with friends.
The same cannot be said of Norway and their rested and refreshed talisman Erling Haaland. Get expert predictions for every match, updated daily throughout the tournament. They face Ghana and could reach the quarterfinals without meeting a top seed. Debutants Cape Verde finished second in Group H ahead of two-time champions Uruguay, who went home. South Africa and Egypt both reached the World Cup knockout rounds for the first time, while Turkiye finished bottom of Group D. All 72 group stage matches covered with win probability data, banker tips, accumulator strategy, and African kick-off times.
South Korea vs Bosnia & Herzegovina – Despite overcoming Italy in the qualifying play-offs, this tie could spell the end of Bosnia’s World Cup journey. Argentina’s quest to become just the third nation in World Cup history to successfully defend their title should face no real threat in Group J. The last time France were in the same group with Senegal, it didn’t end well. They crashed out at the group stage at the 2002 World Cup in South Korea and Japan.
Victory would see Algeria win back-to-back World Cup matches for the first time. Uzbekistan came out on top in 26.8 percent of simulations, while the draw was rated at 24.3 percent, leaving the Central Asian side with an outside chance of reaching the Round of 32. Portugal are slight favourites according to the Opta supercomputer, winning 51.6 percent of its 25,000 pre-match simulations. England and Panama have met only once before at the World Cup, with England cruising to a 6-1 victory in the group stage at Russia 2018. That triumph remains Three Lions’ biggest win in tournament history.
However, the model does simulate extra time and penalties, which generally favor the stronger side, in projecting which team advances. We’ve added a new chart to show you the method of advancement (regulation, extra time, penalties) just to cover all our bases. There are charts showing each team’s chance of winning it all, their most likely opponents at each stage, and precise odds for each game, including the likelihood of particular scores (e.g., Brazil 2-1). France are the favorites to win the World Cup 2026 after a perfect group stage.
Tap a contender to see its group run and knockout path, then lock in your pick. Get 2–4 premium picks daily with odds averaging 3.05 and our loss replacement guarantee. Official FIFA schedule will confirm exact kick-off times for each match. Build a bracket, make your picks, or just check today’s scores. Dive deeper into the tournament with our guides, analysis, and complete team profiles. Independent mathematical ratings that adjust for match importance, result, and opponent strength.
The trio are closely matched and have regularly traded ranking positions leading up to the summer. This knockout matchup is a close one, but Morocco hold the edge. Their continued success on the international stage has carried momentum into this tournament, supported by a young and exciting group of players. Japan, meanwhile, have not displayed the same level of dominance even within their confederation. Still, they should not be overlooked, as Takefusa Kubo’s creativity and their speed on the counter could make this a difficult contest. This season, 51% of World Cup 2026 matches ended with over 2.5 goals, while Both Teams to Score hit in 52% of games.
